Tony Duheaume wrote an op-ed on Track Persia, entitled: “Are Iran’s Revolutionary Guards ready to take control?”, in which he asserted that with the Regime so weakened by infighting that the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) could seize control and do further damage to the Iranian people, the Middle East, and the world as a whole.
He wrote: “Should this come about, Iran would fall under the grip of an extremely dangerous government-directed terrorist entity, which not only has a series of powerful conventional weapons under its control, but also possesses chemical weapons, as well as being on the verge of completing a nuclear weapon, and has missiles with which to deliver them.”
He advised that the international community step in now to rein in the IRGC through sanctions and blacklisting, before they are able to take power.
Although Duheaume does fall into the trap of occasionally distinguishing between hardliners and moderates (there’s no such thing) in the Iranian Regime, his predictions are still incredibly worrying.
The IRGC was founded by Iran’s first Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini, to keep him in power at any cost, much like Hitler’s SS. He offered them a lot in order to keep them on his side and his successor has gone even further, by allowing them superiority over the army and control over much of the economy.
Duheaume warns that they are at their most dangerous today thanks to the death of its former leader Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who curtailed the IRGC’s power to some extent.
Another worry is that the IRGC reports solely to the Supreme Leader, but the current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dying and the IRGC could take the country in a coup before a new Supreme Leader is appointed.
Given the concessions made to the IRGC, no one would be able to tackle them within the Regime, because they wouldn’t have the fighting force or the money.
The IRGC is involved in conflicts across the Middle East, whether that’s fighting to maintain the Bashar Assad dictatorship in Syria or destabilising the Yemeni government in order to take control there. They are trained in taking a country by force and have long been the instigators of terrorism across the Middle East and beyond.
If the international community blacklists the IRGC and labels them as a terrorist organisation, it would cut off their power at the knees. They would be cut off from money, meaning that 1) they do not have the resources necessary to take over a country and start a war and 2) all but the most ardent members would leave.
Duheaume wrote: “With the tightening of economic sanctions by the incoming US administration of Donald Trump, plus the fact that there could be plans in the future to outlaw the IRGC, this could make the Guards even more belligerent than they already are. With their powerful influence in countries like Syria, Iraq and Yemen likely to increase, not only would they have plenty of springboards with which to use as areas to harbour troops, and cause further instability in neighbouring countries, they would also have the ability to control a variety of international waterways with which to cause havoc through the intimidation of ships travelling through them. Such intimidation is likely to disrupt billions of dollars of trade along watercourse trade routes, but it would also allow the IRGC and its proxy forces the ability to use the borders of countries they have commandeered to carry out subversive activity.”
While it may provoke the IRGC, no one wants to see Iran under the control of the IRGC.
Duheaume wrote: “It is now time for the world to realize, such an event is virtually inevitable, and the time has come to rein in the IRGC before it is too late, as the “Chamberlain moment” for “Peace in Our Time” has long past, and a road to war could soon be facing us.”